By Analysts have now quantified the potential box-office drop to come in 2024 with a new report at Deadline indicating 2024 could see a drop of around a billion dollars at the domestic box-office according to analysts.
The drop is being put down to the “erratic pipeline of product” as the strike-impacted industry will see this year’s 124 wide theatrical release count drop to around 107 next year.
There’s also major holes in the 2024 schedule with the weekends of January 26th, March 15th, May 31st, October 11th, December 6th and December 27th all currently having no wide releases planned at all. The only weekend without one in 2023 is the New Year’s Eve weekend about to arrive.
The domestic box office this year, up 21% over 2022 with nearly $9 billion, is expected to fall by 11% to around $8 billion next year.
The first third of 2024, in particular, is being seen as worrisome, with only 30 wide releases over four months – down from 44 this year. The pressure is on “Dune: Part Two,” “Kung Fu Panda 4,” “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire” to deliver the goods.
Recent studies by the National Research Group indicate 69% of moviegoers want more original movies, and there’s a declining sentiment that both franchises are either safe choices or “must-sees in theatres”.
They also found people are attending cinemas less frequently, down a full one-third from pre-pandemic levels. In fact, in 2023 64% prefer watching films at home vs. 36% in cinemas, compared to 2018 when it was 43% at home vs. 57% in cinemas.
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