By Box office researchers Gower Street Analytics have advised that the forecast for the 2024 global cinema box office is likely to come in lower than this year – by over 5% (nearly $2 billion).
In the several years prior to the pandemic, the global box office sat at around $41-42 billion annually, with just over $11 billion being U.S. domestic, around $9 billion being China and the remaining $21 billion or so being other global markets.
That overall figure plunged to $11.8 billion in 2020 and has taken years to grow again – hitting a high of what is forecast to be $33.4 billion this year.
The number, however, is expected to drop back down to $31.5 billion next year as the twin writers and actors strikes of this year will have a negative impact on theatrical revenues next year.
Company CEO Dimitrios Mitsinikos says the drop is “not indicative of a declining interest in cinema, but simply a direct consequence of limited product availability”.
The U.S. is expected to drop 11% and non-Chinese foreign markets down 7% next year. China is the only market forecast to grow next year with a jump of around 5%. The overall numbers are projected to be 21% below the average of the last three pre-pandemic years from 2017-2019.
The results come as filmmaker Christopher Nolan, speaking with Empire Online recently, says he’s feeling optimistic about the future of cinema:
“I’ve just made a three-hour film about Robert Oppenheimer, which is R-rated and half in black-and-white – and it made a billion dollars. Of course I think films are doing great.
The crazy thing is that it’s literally the most successful film I’ve ever made. I’ve been doing this for 20 years and in the United Kingdom, it’s my highest-grossing film.
So, I feel great about the state of the movie business based on my own experience. But also based on seeing other movies break out, seeing audiences come back.”
Gower Street Analytics adds that the titles likely to release in 2025 point to “a very good year at the global box office”.
Source: Variety
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